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Post by Rit on May 20, 2004 14:51:50 GMT -5
yup, you heard right.
All canuck, all the time.
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Post by Rit on May 20, 2004 14:54:00 GMT -5
so, Prime Minister Martin looks like he's going to call a June 28th election. The Conservatives look relatively popular, and even the god-forsaken Bloc are looking up. How's the elections going to play out this year in Canuckistan?
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Post by Dr. Drum on May 20, 2004 15:43:56 GMT -5
We used to have a Canadian Politics board on the old site, too, RP. Good to see it back.
As to the election, I tend to agree with those who say it's going to be a "throw the bums out" type election but it could be an arrested throw the bums out election much like 1974. Which is to say, right now none of the opposition parties is strong enough to sweep into power in a landslide but the Liberals may also not be strong enough to hold on to a majority government. They've got the worst electoral map they've had in a generation. I think we could be into minority government territory here.
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Post by Rit on May 20, 2004 17:06:10 GMT -5
excellent point. yeah, i think that it'll be a minority govt too for the Libs. Martin's big strategy is to attack Harper on his "extremism", but it might backfire.. the real issues remain the same - health care, and govt credibility.
Harper will show strongly this year. But he wont win.
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Post by Dr. Drum on May 20, 2004 19:36:09 GMT -5
No, I don’t believe Harper will win either or at least, I hope he doesn’t. The thing about the Liberal’s demonization of Harper is that while it’s obviously meant to deflect attention from their own less than sterling record, the stuff they’re throwing at him is basically true. He did make the comments about Atlantic Canada’s "culture of defeatism". He did make the Parizeau-like comments about the Liberal's western ridings being dominated by Asian immigrants or recent migrants from Atlantic Canada. We all know that if he had been Prime Minister last year, our soldiers would be in Iraq. He did write the letter to Klein encouraging him to build firewalls around Alberta. And so on...
I think they’re walking a fine line in going negative since Canadians have shown in the past that they don’t take kindly to that kind of politicking but I think it’s absolutely fair game to go after Harper on this stuff, if it’s done honestly. But at the same time, if you want to be elected I think you have to make your own case as well.
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Post by phil on May 21, 2004 7:55:28 GMT -5
I'm voting GREEN !!
(or Marxist-Leninist)
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Post by Dr. Drum on May 21, 2004 8:30:15 GMT -5
Seriously, Phil?
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Post by phil on May 21, 2004 18:50:39 GMT -5
OK ... !!
Green or NPD ...
Or the Party of Natural Law ...!Ö!...
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Post by Dr. Drum on May 22, 2004 5:40:25 GMT -5
Ya know, if I was Paul Martin with all these journalists camped out on the doorstep waiting for the writ to drop Sunday, I'd screw 'em all over and call the election a week later for July 5. ;D
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Post by riley on May 23, 2004 4:58:23 GMT -5
Doc, what do you make of Joe Clark parading around with Scott Brison? Do you think many disenchanted true blue Tories will vote left in lieu of supporting Harper and Co. Thanks for the thread btw Rit.  |
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Post by Dr. Drum on May 23, 2004 6:58:17 GMT -5
Riley, Joe Clark is advising former PCs to disregard the party allegiance of the candidate and vote for the best individual in their riding this time around. He’s personally campaigned for Brison and John Herron (another former PC now running for the Liberals in New Brunswick). He offered to do the same for Jim Prentice running for the Conservatives in Calgary North Centre but Prentice has cabinet aspirations should Harper come out on top, so he declined the offer. Basically I think Joe’s been pretty straight up about where he stands, though, he favours Paul Martin for PM over Stephen Harper.
It’s going to be interesting to see when the old PC vote (1.57 million votes in 2000) ends up in this election. Seems pretty obvious that it’s fractured to some degree and that both the Liberals and NDP will benefit from that. How much each party gets and where they get it could make a big difference if the Liberals stay in minority territory. My guess from the polls and anecdotally, just talking to former PCs around here, is that the Liberals will get the disaffected PC vote in Atlantic Canada. Out west, could be a different story. David Orchard got a 25% of the vote in the last PC leadership vote. Seems to me that the 'natural' place for a disaffected Orchardista to go is the NDP. Polls aren’t really showing it now but if that happens, we could be looking at picking up a few seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
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Post by Meursault on May 24, 2004 13:39:46 GMT -5
How is Canada going to fit into WW3?
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Post by Dr. Drum on May 24, 2004 19:00:31 GMT -5
We're running WWIII or at least that's what I expect this election to turn into before it's over. Paul Martin's on a knife edge and I don't think he's worked for 14-15 years to become Prime Minister to have it snatched away from him withon six months. This is going to get down and dirty before it's over. One way for a political junkie to waste many, many hours: electionprediction.org/2004_fed/index.html |
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Post by Dr. Drum on May 31, 2004 5:07:45 GMT -5
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Post by riley on May 31, 2004 5:35:01 GMT -5
I'm confused. Is that a stab at maintaining the original Torie party seperate and disctinct from the new Conservative party?
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