Post by Dr. Drum on Oct 8, 2007 7:56:16 GMT -5
In his ultimatum to parliament last week ("an ongoing question of confidence"), Stephen Harper signalled his intention to force an election this fall, one way or the other. Maybe the Liberals will yet be able to turn the tables on the government, similar to the way Tories just did to Labour in the UK. More likely though, we'll be sleepwalking to the polls sometime over the next two months in what is shaping up as the most important general election in this country since the vote on free trade in 1988. When they say it's not about a majority, you know it definitely is about a majority.
The Conservatives are now just 29 seats short of that majority. Having come second in 34 ridings in Quebec in 2006, they are certain that in the current political climate in that province, they can win many of these this time around. They also believe they can make at least modest gains in Ontario. They will lose perhaps a half-dozen seats in Newfoundland and Sakatchewan over equalization and the Atlantic Accord. David Emerson will also have a tough fight to retain his seat in Vancouver. They may lose a few more maginals. Nevertheless, with the Liberals unprepared to fight an election and the Bloc in decline in Quebec, their chances of winning a majority have never been better.
So with that, my no doubt much perused 2007 election thread. Ready for five years of PMSteve?
The Conservatives are now just 29 seats short of that majority. Having come second in 34 ridings in Quebec in 2006, they are certain that in the current political climate in that province, they can win many of these this time around. They also believe they can make at least modest gains in Ontario. They will lose perhaps a half-dozen seats in Newfoundland and Sakatchewan over equalization and the Atlantic Accord. David Emerson will also have a tough fight to retain his seat in Vancouver. They may lose a few more maginals. Nevertheless, with the Liberals unprepared to fight an election and the Bloc in decline in Quebec, their chances of winning a majority have never been better.
So with that, my no doubt much perused 2007 election thread. Ready for five years of PMSteve?
