Canadian federal election 2006

[riley]

That was my impression, and his promotional material very much plays to that profile. None of the other candidates in the riding seem to be very visible.

[Rit]

i'm voting for Harper. i'll post a detailed explanation of why later.

[riley]

this shit better be good

[phil]

Shit is shit ! No matter what ... !

[riley]

rit I'm dying to hear your Harper rationale.

[Dr. Drum]

I think that's called yankin' yer chain...
---

Fearless election predictions: Part 2

The Maritimes

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton-Canso

Conservative – Kenzie MacNeil
Green – Rob Hines
Liberal – Rodger Cuzner
NDP – Hector Morrison

Cape Breton is a Liberal stronghold and Cuzner won in 2004 with over 53% of the vote. Looks set to win just by just as big a margin in 2006. A sure Liberal hold short of a complete nation-wide collapse for the party.

Central Nova

Conservative – Peter MacKay
Green – David Orton
Liberal – Dan Walsh
Marxist-Leninist – Allan Bezanson
NDP – Alexis MacDonald

Love to be able to say that MacKay is headed for a beating on election night but in the last 50 years, the only time this area didn't go to a Conservative party was 1993, when the Liberals won every seat in Nova Scotia. Alexis MacDonald ran a surprisingly strong second for the NDP in 2004 and will probably do the same this time, but nothing short of an absolute collapse of Liberal support in the riding is going to take this seat from MacKay.


Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

Conservative – Bill Casey
Green – N. Bruce Farrell
Liberal – Gary Richard
NDP – Margaret Sagar

Another solidly Conservative seat from way back. As safe as MacKay is in Central Nova, Bill Casey is that much more so in Cumberland-Colchester.


Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

Conservative – Robert Campbell
Green – Elizabeth Perry
Liberal – Michael Savage
Marxist-Leninist – Charles Spurr
NDP – Peter Mancini

Provincially the old city of Dartmouth is an NDP stronghold and the federal seat also went that way in 1997 and 2000. The party lost the riding to Liberal Michael Savage in 2004 after a bitterly contested internal nomination battle. Peter Mancini, who lost out then, is a former NDP MP from Cape Breton. This will come down to what will probably be a close one between Savage and Mancini but IMHO, Mancini has a tendency to choke in the stretch. Hope I'm wrong but I'm calling this one for Savage.

Halifax

Conservative – Andrew House
Green – Nick Wright
Liberal – Martin MacKinnon
Marxist-Leninist – Tony Seed
NDP – Alexa McDonough

Alexa McDonough was federal NDP leader from 1995-2003. First elected as a provinicial MLA in 1981. Has won the federal riding of Halifax in three successive elections since making the jump to federal politics. The Liberals, running a popular Halifax city councillor, were a close second in 2004 and are the real competition again this time but MacKinnon is much less well known locally. Should be a solid NDP win.

Halifax West

Conservative – Rakesh Khosla
Green – Thomas Trappenberg
Liberal – Geoff Regan
NDP – Alan Hill

Regan, Minister of Fisheries in the last Liberal government, ran up 47½% of the vote in Halifax West in 2004, running against a well known NDP candidate. None of the other parties has fielded a particularly strong candidate this time, so I'm expecting him to top 50% in this election.

Kings-Hants

Christian Heritage Party – Jack Enserink
Conservative – Bob Mullan
Green – Shiela Richardson
Liberal – Scott Brison
NDP – Mary DeWolfe

This riding is heavily targeted by the Conservatives and exceedingly tight in 2006. Brison won the seat handily against the same Conservative challenger in 2004, having himself jumped from the old Progressive Conservative Party to the Liberals in December 2003. Public Works minister in the last government, he should be safe enough in his own seat to campaign for the Liberals nationally, but if I'm not mistaken he hasn't been out of Kings-Hants since the writ dropped in November. I was calling this for the Conservatives a couple of weeks ago and though I now think Brison will pull it out, it's going to be a squeaker. Mary DeWolfe will place a respectable third in an area not known for being NDP-friendly.

Sackville-Eastern Shore

Conservative – Paul Francis
Green – Richard MacDonald
Liberal – Bill Fleming
NDP – Peter Stoffer

As I mentioned, Peter Stoffer was once known for winning nail-biters but he's developed into a solid constituency politician. Won this seat with almost 46% of the vote in a five-way race in 2004 and will have no trouble repeating this time. Conservative Paul Francis is one of three Christian conservatives running for the party in Metro Halifax ridings.

South Shore-St. Margaret's

Christian Heritage Party – Jim Hnatiuk
Conservative – Gerald Keddy
Green – Katie Boudreau
Liberal – Darian Huskilson
NDP – Gordon Earle

A tight race between incumbent Gerald Keddy for the Conservatives and popular Lockeport mayor Darian Huskilson, with former NDP MP Gordon Earle probably set to take about 25% of the vote. I'm calling it for Keddy but I won't be terribly surprised to see it go Liberal. Keddy, BTW, was one of four Conservatives who bucked the trend in his party and voted in favour of the same-sex marriage legislation in 2005.

Sydney-Victoria

Conservative – Howard MacDonald
Green – Chris Milburn
Liberal – Mark Eyking
NDP – John Hugh Edwards

The same four candidates as 2004, I'm expecting a similar result with Eyking taking over 50% of the vote.

West Nova

Conservative – Greg Kerr
Green – Martha Granger
Liberal – Robert Thibault
NDP – Arthur Bull
Ken Griffiths (independent)

This riding will likely come down to a tight contest between the Liberal incumbent and Conservative challenger with a strong showing by the NDP, which took over 20% of the vote in 2004. Bit of a coin toss: Thibault's got a strong personal following locally and as a former Fisheries minsiter, has doled out his share of pork in the riding. Kerr is a former provinicial Tory MLA and cabinet minister, so he also has name recognition and Bull was president of the local inshore fisherman's association, so he has strong roots in the community. Some say Thibault will never be beaten here but I'm goingto go out on a limb and call it for Kerr.

Nova Scotia provincial breakdown

Liberals – 5
Conservatives – 4
NDP – 2

[Dr. Drum]

Prince Edward Island

Gonna make this one straight forward: I don't believe any the four Liberal incumbents on the Island faces a serious threat from his opponents in this election. A Liberal sweep with at least three of the four candidates racking up over 50% of the vote in his riding.

Cardigan

Conservative – Don Gillis
Green – Haida Arsenault-Antolick
Liberal – Lawrence MacAuley
NDP – Edith Perry

Charlottetown

Christian Heritage Party – Baird Judson
Conservative – Tom DeBlois
Green – David Daughton
Liberal – Shawn Murphy
Marijuana Party – Andrew Chisholm
NDP – Brian Pollard

Egmont

Conservative – Edward Guergis
Green – Ron Matsusaki
Liberal – Joe McGuire
NDP – Regena Kaye Russell
Michael Nesbitt (independent)

Malpeque

Conservative – George Noble
Green – Sharon Labchuk
Liberal – Wayne Easter
NDP – George Marshall

PEI provincial breakdown

Liberals - 4
Opposition - 0

[Dr. Drum]

New Brunswick

Acadie-Bathurst

Conservative – Serge Savoie
Green – Philippe Rousselle
Liberal – Marcelle Mersereau
NDP – Yvon Godin
Ulric DeGrâce (independent)
Eric Landry (independent)

Acadie-Bathurst is arguably the safest NDP seat in the country. Yvon Godin cruised to victory in 2004 with 54% of the vote. The Liberals have a stronger candidate in 2006, Marcelle Mersereau, a former provincial cabinet minister but Godin is coming up with similiar numbers in pre-election polling. Should be another decisive NDP win.

Beauséjour

Conservative – Omer Leger
Green – Anna Girouard
Liberal – Dominic LeBlanc
NDP – Neil Gardner
J. Frank Comeau (independent)

A decisive win for Leblanc in 2004 with over 53% of the vote. I have no reason to suspect anything other than a repeat on Jan. 23.

Fredericton

Conservative – Pat Lynch
Green – Philip Duchastel
Liberal – Andy Scott
NDP – John Carty
David Amos (independent)

This riding went Progressive Conservative for 36 straight years until Andy Scott took it for the Liberals in 1993. Would appear to have a stranglehold on the seat as he looks for his fifth election victory, though Conservative Pat Lynch can be counted to place a respectable 2nd.

Fundy Royal

Conservative – Rob Moore
Green – Patty Donovan
Liberal – Eldon Hunter
NDP – Rob Moir

To say that this riding is another strongly Conservative one would be an understatement – it elected Tories exclusively between 1917 and 1993 – 76 straight years! Paul Zed won it for the Liberals in 1993 only to lose it again to PC John Herron in 1997. Herron left the Conservatives after the Alliance/PC merger and ran as a Liberal in 2004, promptly losing to incumbent Rob Moore. This will remain safely in the Conservative fold on election night.

Madawaska-Restigouche

Conservative – Jean-Pierre Ouellet
Green – Irka Laplante
Liberal – Jean-Claude D'Amours
NDP – Rodolphe Martin

The same NDP candidate surprised a lot of people to finish second here against incumbent D'Amours in 2004. Likely to remain Liberal with additional NDP inroads in 2006.

Miramichi

Conservative – Mike Morrison
Green – John Bethell
Liberal – Charles Hubbard
NDP – Jeannette Manuel-Allain
Danny Gay (independent)

This seat has gone Liberal in every election since 1957 except for the Mulrooney landslide of 1984. Hubbard carried 48% of the vote last time. This one's safe.

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe

Canadian Action Party – Ron Pomerleau
Conservative – Charles Doucet
Green – Camille Labchuk
NDP – David Hackett
Liberal – Brian Murphy

The Liberals have held this seat for 22 of the past 26 years with Claudette Bradshaw taking 60% of the vote in 2004. She retired in 2005 but popular former Moncton mayor Brian Murphy would seem a safe bet to hold it for the Grits.

New Brunswick Southwest

Conservative – Greg Thompson
Green – Erik Millett
Liberal – Stan Smith
NDP – Andrew Graham

This area has gone PC in every election since 1968 with the exception of the meltdown of 93. An easy win for Thompson in 2004 and will remain so this time.

Saint John

Conservative – John Wallace
Green – Vern Garnett
Liberal – Paul Zed
NDP – Terry Albright

Since 1968, Saint John has mainly gone Conservative, though the Liberals took it in 1974 and 1980. Elsie Wayne held it for the PCs from 1997 until she retired in 2004. This is going to be a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals but I think the unpopularity of the provincial Conservatives might play a role in Zed holding the riding for the Liberals this time around.

Tobique-Mactaquac

Conservative – Mike Allen
Green – Robert Bérubé Jr.
Liberal – Andy Savoy
NDP – Alice Finnamore

Allen lost to incumbent Savoy in 2004 by over 3000 votes. Not seeing anything that would convince me anything really changed this time around.

New Brunswick provincial breakdown:

Liberal – 7
Conservative – 2
NDP – 1

Atlantic regional breakdown:

Liberal – 20
Conservative – 9
NDP – 3

[Dr. Drum]

If you couldn't laugh, you’d have to cry.

[riley]

I'll give that a read when I get home. looks like classic Mercer

Before I forget, and regardless of whether any of your predictions play out Doc, let me be the first to say those posts are damn impressive !

[Rit]

yes, they are.

[Dr. Drum]

Thanks guys. FWIW, I think a couple of my Atlantic Canada predictions are already looking shaky, what with the 'Pinochet ad' and the wheels coming off the Liberal bus in Ontario. Maybe they still have time to turn it around but if that doesn’t become apparent in the next couple days, you’re going to get a bandwagon effect and guys like Brison will be toast.

[Rit]

Harper's has just gone and started to talk about missile defence. there's no way on earth i'm voting him, as i was tenuously supporting him to begin with.

and i don't think he's going to get very far anymore... he's not going to win if he talks up missile defence. what a sneaky ass.

[Dr. Drum]

Rit, I’d be curious to hear what in Harper’s program you would have ever found even mildly attractive. Missile defence was always going to be part of the equation with Harper, of course, if a way could be found to finagle it in a minority parliament. Ditto cooperation with any new military adventures Bush might dream up. Beyond all that, though, you’re looking at a whole raft of neo-con wet dreams – undermining/dismantling the social safety net, beginning the privatization of Medicare, massive tax cuts for corporations and the wealthiest Canadians, the scaling back of equalization, rolling back SSM… and on and on and on.

Granted, this stuff isn’t going to happen this year or next – Harper’s going to be a relatively good boy with a minority in the hopes of convincing people to give him a majority in the next election – but that’s the long term vision and make no mistake, Harper is in it for the long term. So what is there is his program that could ever have attracted you even slightly in the first place??

[rockkid]

Martins trying to put liberals in cities.
Yes liberals without guns.
In Canadian cities.
We’re not making this up.
Choose your Canada.




Safe to say after “the ad” there’s not a person on this base voting for the asshole!