Canadian federal election 2006

[Dr. Drum]

Election predictions, Part 3: Quebec

It’s been clear from the outset of this election that due to the sponsorship scandal, the Bloc Québécois was again going to be absolutely dominant in Quebec, as they were in 2004. The only thing that’s become slightly more apparent since is the magnitude of the Liberal meltdown in the province.

So given then that so many Quebec seats are basically out of contention, I’m changing the format a little for my Quebec posts. For most regions of the province, I’ll first list the ridings where I think a Bloc victory is virtually assured. Following those, I’ll list contests of interest or seats which are still in contention.

Montréal will be a little different – both the Liberals and Bloc have safe ridings there. I’ll first list those for each party and then deal with seats that are in play.

Since the province is so large, I’m dividing it on a roughly geographical basis.

Eastern Townships/Gaspe/St. Lawrence River South

A lock for the Bloc:

1. Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour – Louis Plamondon (incumbent) Won this riding with more than 20,000 votes to spare over his nearest rival in 2004.
2. Chambly-Borduas – Yves Lessard (incumbent) Took almost 61% of the vote in 2004.
3. Châteauguay-Saint-Constant – Carole Freeman
4. Compton-Stanstead – France Bonsant (incumbent)
5. Drummond – Pauline Picard Another huge Bloc majority. Conservatives may place second here – possibly with less than 20% of the vote.
6. Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine – Raynald Blais (incumbent)
7. Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia – Jean-Yves Roy (incumbent)
8. Lévis-Bellechasse – Real Lapierre (incumbent)
9. Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher – Caroline St-Hilaire (incumbent)
10. Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière – Odina Desrochers (incumbent)
11. Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup – Paul Crête (incumbent)
12. Richmond-Arthabaska – André Bellavance (incumbent)
13. Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques – Louise Thibault (incumbent)
14. Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert – Carole Lavallée (incumbent)
15. Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot – Yvan Loubier (incumbent)
16. Saint-Jean – Claude Bachand (incumbent)
17. Saint-Lambert – Maka Kotto (incumbent)
18. Sherbrooke – Serge Cardin (incumbent)
19. Verchères-Les Patriotes – Luc Malo (incumbent)
-----------
In contention:

Beauce

Bloc – Patrice Moore
Conservative – Maxime Bernier
Green – Jean-Claude Roy
Liberal – Jacques Lussier
NDP – Cléo Chartier

Conservative candidate Maxime Bernier is the son of the "King of the Beauce", former Mulrooney Tory MP Gilles Bernier, who was kicked out of the party by Kim Campbell under a cloud of corruption charges before the ’93 election. He went on to win the seat as an independent. This riding has a long history, going back to the early 60s, of voting for small "c" conservative candidates – Social Credit and PCs mainly with a smattering of Liberals.

Beauharnois-Salaberry

Bloc – Claude DeBellefeuille
Conservative – David Couturier
Green – David Smith
Liberal – John Khawand
NDP – Cynthia Roy

DeBellefeuille defeated sitting Bloc MP Alain Boire for the party’s nomination for this election. Strangely Boire opted not to run as an independent, but you have to figure on at least a little bad blood from his supporters. Combine this with the Liberal meltdown and the swing of federalist votes to the Conservatives and this riding should be in play for them. Indeed, Conservative numbers are good here, but my guess is their lack of real organization on the ground will cost them.

Brome-Missisquoi

Bloc – Christian Ouellet
Conservative – David Marler
Green – Michel Champagne
Liberal – Denis Paradis
NDP – Josianne Jetté
Progressive Canadian Party – Heward Grafftey

Incumbent MP Denis Paradis was junior minister for financial institutions in the Martin government. He’s won four elections in this riding but his run looks to be coming to an end this time. I’m picking Bloc candidate Christian Ouellet to win the seat. All the same, while he looks to be ahead, he’s not overwhelmingly popular here either.

There is actually an outside chance for Progressive Canadian Party candidate Heward Grafftey in this seat. As their initials would indicate, the PCP is a rump of former Progressive Conservatives who did not accept the 2003 Alliance-PC merger. Grafftey in fact held this seat as a PC from 1958 – 1968 and again from 1972 – 1980 and was a minister in the Joe Clark government. Running as a PC as recently as the 2000 election, he came third.


Brossard-La Prairie

Bloc – Marcel Lussier
Conservative – Tenzin Khangsar
Green – François Desgroseilliers
Liberal – Jacques Saada
Marxist-Leninist – Normand Chouinard
NDP – Robert Nicolas

Another incumbent MP and Liberal junior minister in trouble. As recently as a couple days ago, Saada looked to be finished. Since then, Conservative support in the riding appears to have shot up rather dramatically. It’s all going to come down to whether that support is bleeding from Saada or the Bloc candidate. I’m guessing in ridings like this one it may be coming from the Bloc, which is why Duceppe sharpened his attacks against the Conservatives last week.

Mégantic-L'Érable

Bloc – Marc Boulianne
Conservative – Christian Paradis
Green – Jean François Hamel
Liberal – Yvan Corriveau
NDP – Isabelle Tremblay

This riding is very much in play for the Conservatives. I’m giving the edge to Bloc MP Boulianne based on incumbency and what I’d guess is superior organization on the ground. Not out of the question for the Conservatives to pick this up though. At the very least they’ll be strong second place finishers.

Shefford

Bloc – Robert Vincent
Conservative – Jean Lambert
Green – Francine Brière
Liberal – Diane St-Jacques
NDP – Paula Maundcote

Shefford is in contention, again mainly because of the uptick in Conservative support in Quebec. In this case that may allow Liberal candidate and one-time Bloc MP for the riding, Diane St-Jacques, to come up the middle and win the seat. Still calling it for the Bloc incumbent but it could be close.

Regional breakdown:

Bloc Quebecois – 23
Conservatives – 1
Liberals – 1

Next up the real battleground in Quebec – the once impregnable Liberal fortress of Montréal.

[Dr. Drum]

This is getting harder to call. The situation in Quebac remains very fluid – you might as well call it volatile – with momentum for the Conservatives continuing to build. This may not always get Conservatives elected (though I’ve heard credible commentators say that the 12 – 15 seat range is no longer out of their grasp there, in which case hello Conservative majority government). The most likely scenario, however, is one where a Bloc or Liberal candidate unexpectedly wins a riding due to the Conservatives siphoning votes from the other party.

Anyway, my ever shakier predictions beginning with the greater Montréal region.

Montréal

A lock for the Bloc:

1. Alfred-Pellan – Robert Carrier (incumbent)
2. Hochelaga – Real Menard (incumbent)
3. La Pointe-de-l'Île – Francine Lalonde (incumbent)
4. Laurier-Sainte-Marie – Gilles Duceppe (incumbent, Leader of the Bloc Quebecois) 5. Laval – Nicole Demers (incumbent)
6. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin – Serge Menard (incumbent)
7. Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie – Bernard Bigras (incumbent)

Safe Liberal seats:

1. LaSalle-Émard – Paul Martin (incumbent, Prime Minister/Leader of the Liberal Party)
2. Laval-Les Îles – Raymonde Folco (incumbent)
3. Mount Royal – Irwin Cotler (incumbent, Minister of Justice/Attorney General of Canada)
4. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine – Marlene Jennings (incumbent)
5. Pierrefonds-Dollard – Bernard Patry (incumbent)
6. Saint-Laurent-Cartierville – Stéphane Dion (incumbent, Minister of the Environment)
7. Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel – Massimo Pacetti (incumbent)
8. Westmount-Ville-Marie – Lucienne Robillard (incumbent, President of the Privy Council; Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs)

In contention:

Ahuntsic

Bloc – Maria Mourani
Conservative – Étienne Morin
Green – Lynette Tremblay
Liberal – Eleni Bakopanos
NDP – Caroline Desrosiers

Ahuntsic is an urban Montréal riding with large Italian, Greek and Arab communities. Slightly more than half the population has French as its mother tongue. Historically immigrant and 'allophone' voters have tended to vote for federalists over sovereignists but this is no longer true to the degree that it used to be. Bit of a coin toss between incumbent Eleni Bakopanos and Maria Mourani. It’ll be very close but considering the Liberal’s standing in Quebec, I’m calling for the Bloc.

Bourassa

Bloc – Apraham Niziblian
Conservative – Liberato Martelli
Green – François Boucher
Liberal – Denis Coderre
Marxist-Leninist – Geneviève Royer
NDP – Stefano Saykaly

Another north Montreal riding with a large ethnic population. Coderre was the Immigration minister under under Jean Chretien and tipped to go places until Paul martin took over. This is going to be another very close race, so close that a couple days ago I was calling it for the Bloc despite Coderre’s name recognition factor.

Honoré-Mercier

Bloc – Gérard Labelle
Conservative – Angelo M. Marino
Green – Sylvain Castonguay
Liberal – Pablo Rodriguez
Marxist-Leninist – Hélène Héroux
NDP – François Pilon

An industrial riding in east-end Montreal. About 60% of the population has French as a first language. It also has one of the largest Italian communities in the country. One of the ridings that’s seen an upswing in Conservative support in the last week. Rodriguez is first-term Liberal MP, elected in 2004 but the riding has gone Bloc in the past as well.


Jeanne-Le Ber

Bloc – Thierry St-Cyr
Conservative – Pierre-Olivier Brunelle
Green – Claude William Genest
Liberal – Liza Frulla
NDP – Matthew McLauchlin

A majority French riding on Montreal island, with large English, Italian and other immigrant communities. Incumbent Liberal Liza Frulla was Heritage minister in the last government. She won the riding by only 72 votes in 2004. My guess is this will be one of the ridings where sponsorship and the rise of the Conservatives will cost the Liberals.

Lac-Saint-Louis

Bloc – Anne-Marie Guertin
Conservative – Andrea Paine
Green – Peter Graham
Liberal – Francis Scarpaleggia
NDP – Daniel Quinn

Jack Layton’s father held this riding as a Progressive Conservative under Brian Mulrooney. The Conservative vote is on the rise here again. If not for that, I’d call it safe for Liberal incumbent Francis Scarpallegia. He’ll probably hold it but there is the possibility of an upset for the Bloc or Conservative candidate.

Outremont

Bloc – Jacques Léonard
Conservative – Daniel Fournier
Green – François Pilon
Liberal – Jean Lapierre
Marxist-Leninist – Linda Sullivan
NDP – Léo-Paul Lauzon
Progressive Canadian Party – Philip Paynter
Eric Denis (independent)
Yan Lacombe (independent)
Régent Millette (independent)
Xavier Rochon (independent)

One of the hardest seats in Quebec to predict. Started off as a tight three-way contest between incumbent Liberal Jean Lapierre, Martin’s Quebec lieutenant; former provincial cabinet minister Jacques Léonard for the BQ and the personally popular Léo-Paul Lauzon for the NDP. Has turned into an even tighter four-way contest with the sudden upsurge for the Conservatives. I am reasonably certain that the voters of the riding are going to take the opportunity to punish the gaffe-prone Lapierre, less sure of who ultimately will benefit.

Papineau

Bloc – Vivian Barbot
Canadian Action Party – Mahmood-Raza Baig
Conservative – Mustaque Sarker
Green – Louis-Philippe Verenka
Liberal – Pierre Pettigrew
Marxist-Leninist – Peter Macrisopoulos
NDP – Marc Hasbani

Liberal incumbent and Foreign Affairs minister Pierre Pettigrew is certainly in trouble here, forcing the Prime Minister to to campaign here last weekend in an attempt to shore him up. The Bloc candidate, Haitian-born Vivian Barbot has problems of her own, with alleged family connections to the Ton-Ton Macoutes back in Haiti. Polls are said to be running against Pettigrew. Another toss-up that will probably be decided by a handful of votes.

Regional breakdown:

Bloc Québécois – 11
Liberals – 11

[Dr. Drum]

Saint Lawrence River North/Western Quebec

A lock for the Bloc:

1. Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
2. Berthier-Maskinongé
3. Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
4. Louis-Hébert
5. Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
6. Québec
7. Repentigny
8. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
9. Saint-Maurice-Champlain
10. Terrebonne-Blainville
11. Trois-Rivières

In contention:

Beauport-Limoilou

Bloc – Christian Simard
Conservative – Sylvie Boucher
Green – Mario Laprise
Liberal – Yves Picard
Marxist-Leninist – Jean Bédard
NDP – Simon-Pierre Beaudet

A close contest between the Bloc and the Conservatives here with the Liberal vote, never strong since the 1980s, appearing to have collapsed entirely. Incumbency and superior organization should seal it for the Bloc.

Gatineau

Bloc – Richard Nadeau
Conservative – Patrick Robert
Green – Gail Walker
Liberal – Françoise Boivin
NDP – Anne Levesque

An Ottawa-area Quebec riding with incumbent Liberal, and first-time MP Françoise Boivin, appearing to be in trouble due to a split in the federalist vote. Bloc candidate Richard Nadeau came within 900 votes of beating her in 2004. Looks like he may pull it off this time.

Hull-Aylmer

Bloc – Alain Charette
Conservative – Gilles Poirier
Green – Christian Doyle
Liberal – Marcel Proulx
Marxist-Leninist – Gabriel Girard-Bernier
NDP – Pierre Laliberté

Another rare four-way race. The Liberals, Bloc, NDP and Conservatives are all competitive. The federalist vote is the big question once again, since this is another riding just across the river from Ottawa, but in this case it looks like voters will stick with a known quantity and return the incumbent Liberal. The other three parties all have a shot at it, though – Conservatives or the NDP if federalists switch en masse to one party out of disgust with Liberal scandals; the Bloc if the federalist vote fragments.

Louis-Saint-Laurent

Bloc – Bernard Cleary
Conservative – Josée Verner
Green – Lucien Gravelle
Liberal – Isa Gros-Louis
NDP – Robert Donnelly
Christian Légaré (independent)

The Liberals, NDP and Greens are completely out of contention here; it’s a straight two-way race between Conservative Josée Verner and incumbent Bloc MP Bernard Cleary with the Cons appearing to be clearly in the lead right now. Looks like they’ll pick up their second Quebec seat here. Who would have dreamed of it even six months ago? Verner, who is Harper’s Quebec lieutenant, is certain to be in any Conservative cabinet.

Pontiac

Bloc – Christine Émond Lapointe
Conservative – Lawrence Cannon
Green – Moe Garahan
Liberal – David Smith
Marxist-Leninist – Benoit Legros
NDP – Céline Brault

The Conservatives have high hopes for former provincial Liberal cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon in this riding and Harper campaigned for him personally again this week. He will do well in what is essentially a three-way contest between the Conservatives, incumbent Liberal David Smith and Christine Lapointe for the Bloc. I’m calling it for experience and organization – provided voters don’t decide to punish Smith personally for sponsorship, the Liberals should be able to hold off the challenge from a much less experienced local Conservative team. It will be close, though.

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier

Bloc – Guy Côté
Conservative – Howard M. Bruce
Green – Jérôme Beaulieu
Liberal – Gilles Landry
NDP – Jean-Marie Fiset
André Arthur (independent)

A Quebec City area riding, so perhaps I should turn this one over to Phil! I’m predicting it for incumbent Bloc MP Côté, though the Conservatives also have a legitmate shot, especially with the on-going Liberal meltdown. Independent candidate André Arthur, a fixture of local politics, may also do well.

Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Bloc – Meili Faille
Conservative – Stéphane Bourgon
Green – Pierre Pariseau-Legault
Liberal – Marc Garneau
NDP – Bert Markgraf

Liberal star candidate and first Canadian astronaut in space Marc Garneau vs. incumbent Bloc MP Meili Faille. This one should give us some indication of whether the sponsorship scandal was a disaster for the Liberals in Quebec of apocalyptic or merely catastrophic proportions. In any other election, I’d put a candidate like Garneau down as a sure bet. This time, I’m giving him the nod but it’s a tentative thing at best.

Regional breakdown:

Bloc – 14
Liberals – 3
Conservatives – 1

[Dr. Drum]

Northern Quebec

A lock for the Bloc:

Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Joliette
Jonquière-Alma
Laurentides-Labelle
Manicouagan
Montcalm
Rivière-du-Nord
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean

In contention:

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

Bloc – Robert Bouchard
Conservative – Alcide Boudreault
NDP – Éric Dubois
Green – Jean-Martin Gauthier
Liberal – André Harvey

A tight race with a rarity in Quebec in 2006 - a popular Liberal candidate. Still calling it for the Bloc but André Harvey may pull off a surprise.

Regional breakdown:

Bloc – 10

Provincial breakdown for Quebec:

Bloc Québécois – 58
Liberals – 15
Conservatives – 2

[Dr. Drum]

Election predictions, Part 4: Quick and dirty

Ontario

Greater Toronto Area

Ajax-Pickering – I’m sure the comedy writers of the nation are secretly hoping wingnut Conservative candidate Rondo Thomas gets it but it’ll be Mark Holland (Liberal incumbent).

Beaches-East York – This is going to be very close. I’m predicting Marilyn Churley for the NDP over Liberal incumbent Maria Minna but Green leader Jim Harris could save her, if he polls high enough.

Bramalea-Gore-Malton – Gurbax Malhi (Liberal incumbent)
Brampton-Springdale – Ruby Dhalla (Liberal incumbent)
Brampton West – Colleen Beaumier (Liberal incumbent)
Burlington – Paddy Tounsey (Liberal incumbent)
Davenport – Gordon Perks (NDP) knocking off incumbent Liberal Mario Silva.
Don Valley East – Yasmin Ratansi (Liberal incumbent)
Don Valley West – John Godfrey (Liberal incumbent)
Durham – Bev Oda (Conservative incumbent)
Eglinton-Lawrence – Joe Volpe (Liberal incumbent, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration)
Etobicoke Centre – Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Liberal incumbent)

Etobicoke-Lakeshore – Closer than anyone would have imagined at the outset. I’m going to go out on a limb and say John Capobianco for the Conservatives over Liberal leadership hopeful Michael Ignatieff.

Etobicoke North – Roy Cullen (Liberal incumbent)
Halton – Garth Turner (Conservative). [ sarcasm ]The financial services sector’s loss will be the nation’s gain.[ /sarcasm ]
Markham-Unionville – John McCallum (Liberal incumbent, Minister of National Revenue)
Mississauga-Brampton South – Navdeep Bains (Liberal incumbent)
Mississauga East-Cooksville – Albina Guarnieri (Liberal incumbent, Minister of Veterans Affairs)
Mississauga-Erindale – Bob Dechert (Conservative)
Mississauga South – Phil Green (Conservative)
Mississauga-Streetsville – Raminder Gill (Conservative)

Newmarket-Aurora – Going to be close but Lois Brown for the Conservatives over incumbent Liberal Belinda Stronach. Peter Mackay's new favourite MP.

Oak Ridges-Markham – Lui Temelkovski (Liberal incumbent)
Oakville – Bonnie Brown (Liberal incumbent)
Oshawa – A dogfight between the Cons and the NDP. Depends on how much of the Liberal vote holds but I’m going to call it for Sid Ryan of the NDP over Conservative incumbent Colin Carrie.
Parkdale-High Park – Peggy Nash (NDP) over incumbent Liberal Sam Bulte.
Pickering-Scarborough East – Dan McTeague (Liberal incumbent)
Richmond Hill – Bryon Wilfert (Liberal incumbent)

St. Paul's – Too close to call, really. In a tight three-way race I’ll say Carolyn Bennett, the Liberal incumbent, over Conservative Peter Kent and N-Dipper Paul Summerville.

Scarborough-Agincourt – Jim Karygiannis (Liberal incumbent)
Scarborough Centre – John Cannis (Liberal incumbent)
Scarborough-Guildwood – John McKay (Liberal incumbent)
Scarborough-Rouge River – Derek Lee (Liberal incumbent)
Scarborough Southwest – Tom Wappel (resident Liberal wingnut)
Thornhill – Susan Kadis (Liberal incumbent)
Toronto Centre – Bill Graham (Liberal incumbent and Minister of National Defence)
Toronto-Danforth – Jack Layton (Leader of the New Democratic Party)
Trinity-Spadina – Olivia Chow (NDP) over incumbent Liberal Tony Ianno. This one will be sweet!
Vaughan – Maurizio Bevilacqua (Liberal incumbent since 1988)
Whitby-Oshawa – Jim Flaherty (Conservative) over incumbent Liberal Judi Longfield. Flaherty was a minister in the Harris and Eves Tory governments in Ontario.
Willowdale – Jim Peterson (Liberal incumbent)
York Centre – No. 29 Ken Dryden (Liberal incumbent and Minister of Social Development)
York South-Weston – Alan Tonks (Liberal incumbent)
York-Simcoe – Peter Van Loan (Conservative incumbent)
York West – Judy Sgro (Liberal incumbent)

Eastern Ontario

Carleton-Mississippi Mills – Gordon O’Connor (Conservative incumbent)
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell – Pierre Lemieux (Conservative) Don Boudria’s old seat.
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock – Barry Devolin (Conservative incumbent)
Kingston and the Islands – Peter Milliken (Liberal incumbent)
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington – The infamous Scott Reid (Conservative incumbent)
Leeds-Grenville – Gord Brown (Conservative incumbent)
Nepean-Carleton – Pierre Poilievre (Conservative incumbent)
Northumberland-Quinte West (Rick Norlock (Conservative)

Ottawa Centre – Didn’t look good at the start but it’ll be Paul Dewar of the NDP holding the seat Ed Broadbent represented in the last parliament.

Ottawa-Orléans – Royal Galipeau (Conservative)

Ottawa South – Allan Cutler (Conservative) over incumbent Liberal David McGuinty, brother of the premier of Ontario. Chalk another one up to the sponsorship scandal.

Ottawa-Vanier – Mauril Bélanger (Liberal incumbent)
Ottawa West-Nepean – John Baird (Conservative) Another former provincial Tory minister.
Peterborough – Dean Del Mastro (Conservative)
Prince Edward-Hastings – Daryl Kramp (Conservative incumbent)
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke – The infamous Cheryl Gallant (Conservative incumbent).
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry – Guy Lauzon (Conservative incumbent)

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing – Very close between the Liberals and NDP, but I’ll call it for incumbent Liberal Brent St. Denis.
Kenora – Susan Barclay (NDP)
Nickel Belt – Another close one between the Liberals and NDP. Ray Bonin (Liberal incumbent)
Nipissing-Timiskaming – Anthony Rota (Liberal incumbent)
Parry Sound-Muskoka – Very tight race but it will be incumbent Liberal and Minister of Agriculture, Andy Mitchell, over former provincial minister and onetime federal Conservative leadership hopeful Tony Clement.
Sault Ste. Marie – Tony Martin (NDP incumbent)
Sudbury – I’m going out on a limb again and calling this one for NDP candidate Gerry McIntaggart over incumbent Liberal and former minister Diane Marleau.
Thunder Bay-Rainy River – Ken Boshkoff (Liberal incumbent)
Thunder Bay-Superior North – Joe Comuzzi (Liberal incumbent)
Timmins-James Bay – Charlie Angus (NDP incumbent)

Southwestern Ontario

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale – Russ Powers (Liberal incumbent)
Barrie – Patrick Brown (Conservative)
Brant – Phil McColeman (Conservative)
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound – Larry Miller (Conservative incumbent)
Cambridge – Cary Goodyear (Conservative incumbent)
Chatham-Kent-Essex – David Van Kesteren (Conservative incumbent)
Dufferin-Caledon – David Tilson (Conservative incumbent)
Elgin-Middlesex-London – Joe Preston (Conservative incumbent)
Essex – Jeff Watson (Conservative incumbent)
Guelph – Brenda Chamberlain (Liberal incumbent)
Haldimand-Norfolk – Diane Finley (Conservative incumbent)
Hamilton Centre – David Christopherson (NDP incumbent)

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek – Wayne Marston of the NDP over Liberal incumbent and Government House Leader Tony Valeri.

Hamilton Mountain – An NDP sweep in Hamilton as Chris Charlton takes another former Liberal seat. Conservative candidate will place second.

Huron-Bruce – Paul Steckle (Liberal incumbent)
Kitchener Centre – Karen Redman (Liberal incumbent)
Kitchener-Conestoga – Lynn Myers (Liberal incumbent) in a close one.
Kitchener-Waterloo – Andrew Telegdi (Liberal incumbent)
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex – Bev Shipley (Conservative)
London-Fanshawe – Irene Mathyssen (NDP) in an exceedingly tight three-way race.
London North Centre – Joe Fontana (Liberal incumbent and Minister of Labour)
London West – Sue Barnes (Liberal incumbent)
Niagara Falls – Rob Nicholson (Conservative incumbent)
Niagara West-Glanbrook – Dean Allison (Conservative incumbent)
Oxford – Dave Mackenzie (Conservative incumbent)
Perth-Wellington – Gary Schellenberger (Conservative incumbent)
St. Catharines – Rick Dykstra (Conservative)
Sarnia-Lambton – Roger Gallaway (Liberal incumbent)
Simcoe-Grey – Helena Guergis (Conservative incumbent)
Simcoe North – Bruce Stanton (Conservative)
Welland – John Maloney (Liberal incumbent)
Wellington-Halton Hills – Mike Chong (Conservative incumbent)
Windsor-Tecumseh – Joe Comartin (NDP incumbent)
Windsor West – Brian Masse (NDP incumbent)

Provincial breakdown:

Conservative: 41
Liberal: 48
NDP: 17

Western Canada (hopefully) to follow...

[Dr. Drum]

Western Canada and The North

Manitoba

Brandon-Souris – Merv Tweed (Conservative incumbent)
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia – Stephen Fletcher (Conservative incumbent)
Churchill – Niki Ashton (NDP)
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette – Inky Mark (Conservative incumbent)
Elmwood-Transcona – Bill Blaikie (NDP incumbent)
Kildonan-St. Paul – Joy Smith (Conservative incumbent)
Portage-Lisgar – Brian Pallister (Conservative incumbent)
Provencher – Vic Toews (Conservative incumbent)
Saint Boniface – Raymond Simard (Liberal incumbent)
Selkirk-Interlake – Jim Bezan (Conservative incumbent) over Ed Schreyer of the NDP.
Winnipeg Centre – Pat Martin (NDP incumbent)
Winnipeg North – Judy Wasylycia-Leis (NDP incumbent)
Winnipeg South – Will be close. Reg Alcock, incumbent Liberal and President of the Treasury Board by a couple hundred votes over Conservative Rod Bruinooge.
Winnipeg South Centre – Mike Richards (Conservative) over incumbent Liberal Anita Neville.

Provincial breakdown:

Conservative – 8
Liberal – 2
NDP – 4

Saskatchewan

Battlefords-Lloydminster – Gerry Ritz (Conservative incumbent)
Blackstrap – Lynne Yelich (Conservative incumbent)
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River – Voters in this riding have a chance to elect John A. McDonald (!) (Green Party) as their MP. They won’t, though, it’ll be Conservative incumbent Jeremy Harrison.
Cypress Hills-Grasslands – David Anderson (Conservative incumbent)
Palliser – Dave Batters (Conservative incumbent)
Prince Albert – Brian Fitzpatrick (Conservative incumbent)
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre – Tom Lukiwski (Conservative incumbent)
Regina-Qu'Appelle – Lorne Nystrom (NDP) over Conservative incumbent Andrew Scheer in a close one.
Saskatoon-Humboldt – Brad Trost (Conservative incumbent)
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar – Carol Skelton (Conservative incumbent)
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin – Maurice Vellacott (Conservative incumbent)
Souris-Moose Mountain – Ed Komarnicki (Conservative incumbent)
Wascana – Ralph Goodale (Liberal incumbent and Minister of Finance)
Yorkton-Melville – Gary Breitkreuz (Conservative incumbent)

Provincial breakdown:

Conservative – 12
Liberal – 1
NDP – 1

Next, the easiest province in Canada to predict:

Alberta

Calgary Centre – Lee Richardson (Conservative incumbent)
Calgary Centre-North – Jim Prentice (Conservative incumbent)
Calgary East – Deepak Obhrai (Conservative incumbent)
Calgary Northeast – Art Hanger (Conservative incumbent)
Calgary-Nose Hill – Diane Ablonczy (Conservative incumbent)
Calgary Southeast – Jason Kenney (Conservative incumbent)
Calgary Southwest – Stephen Harper (Leader of the Conservative Party)
Calgary West – Rob Anders (Conservative incumbent and one MP from Calgary certain not to end up in a Conservative cabinet.)
Crowfoot – Kevin Sorenson (Conservative incumbent)
Edmonton Centre – ‘Landslide Annie’ spoils a potential Conservative shutout in Alberta – Anne McLellan (Liberal incumbent and Deputy Prime Minister)
Edmonton East – Peter Goldring (Conservative incumbent)
Edmonton-Leduc – Jim Rajotte (Conservative incumbent)
Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont – Michael Lake (Conservative)
Edmonton-St. Albert – John Williams (Conservative incumbent)
Edmonton-Sherwood Park – Ken Epp (Conservative incumbent)
Edmonton-Spruce Grove – Rona Ambrose (Conservative incumbent)
Edmonton-Strathcona – Rahim Jaffer (Conservative incumbent). In a slight nod to political pluralism, Linda Duncan will finish a strong second for the NDP.
Fort McMurray-Athabasca – Brian Jean (Conservative incumbent)
Lethbridge – Rick Casson (Conservative incumbent)
Macleod – Ted Menzies (Conservative incumbent)
Medicine Hat – Monte Solberg (Conservative incumbent)
Peace River – Chris Warkentin (Conservative)
Red Deer – Bob Mills (Conservative incumbent)
Vegreville-Wainwright – Leon Benoit (Conservative incumbent)
Westlock-St. Paul – Brian Storseth (Conservative)
Wetaskiwin – Blaine Calkins (Conservative)
Wild Rose – Myron Thompson (Conservative incumbent)
Yellowhead – Rob Merrifield (Conservative incumbent)

Provincial breakdown:

Conservative – 27
Liberal – 1

British Columbia

Abbotsford – Ed Fast (Conservative)
British Columbia Southern Interior – Alex Atamanenko (NDP)
Burnaby-Douglas – Bill Siksay (NDP incumbent)
Burnaby-New Westminster – Peter Julian (NDP incumbent)
Cariboo-Prince George – Dick Harris (Conservative incumbent)
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon – Chuck Strahl (Conservative incumbent)
Delta-Richmond East – John Cummins (Conservative incumbent)
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca – Randall Garrison (NDP) over Liberal incumbent Keith Martin, though there is a possibility of the Conservative coming up the middle to steal it.
Fleetwood-Port Kells – Brenda Locke (Liberal) over Conservative incumbent Nina Grewal
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo – Betty Hinton (Conservative incumbent)
Kelowna-Lake Country – Ron Cannan (Conservative)
Kootenay-Columbia – Jim Abbott (Conservative incumbent)
Langley – Mark Warawa (Conservative incumbent)
Nanaimo-Alberni – Manjeet Uppal (NDP) over Conservative incumbent Jim Lunney
Nanaimo-Cowichan – Jean Crowder (NDP incumbent)
Newton-North Delta – Sukh Dhaliwal (Liberal)
New Westminster-Coquitlam – Dawn Black (NDP) over Conservative incumbent Paul Forseth by <100 votes.
North Vancouver – Don Bell (Liberal incumbent)
Okanagan-Shuswap – Colin Mays (Conservative)
Okanagan-Coquihalla – Stockwell Day (Conservative incumbent)
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission – Mike Bocking (NDP) over Conservative incumbent Randy Camp
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam – Jim Moore (Conservative incumbent)
Prince George-Peace River – Jay Hill (Conservative incumbent)
Richmond – Raymond Chan (Liberal incumbent)
Saanich-Gulf Islands – Jennifer Burgis (NDP) over Conservative incumbent Gary Lunn
Skeena-Bulkley Valley – Nathan Cullen (NDP incumbent)
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale – Russ Hiebert (Conservative incumbent)
Surrey North – Penny Priddy (NDP)
Vancouver Centre – Hedy Fry (Liberal incumbent) over Svend Robinson of the NDP.
Vancouver East – Libby Davies (NDP)
Vancouver Island North – John Duncan (Conservative incumbent)
Vancouver Kingsway – Ian Waddell (NDP) over Liberal incumbent and Industry minister David Emerson.
Vancouver Quadra – Stephen Owen (Liberal incumbent and Minister of Western Economic Deversification)
Vancouver South – Ujjal Dosanjh (Liberal incumbent and Minister of Health)
Victoria – Denise Savoie (NDP)
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country – Blair Wilson (Liberal)

Provincial breakdown:

Conservative – 14
Liberal – 8
NDP – 14

The North

Yukon – Larry Bagnell (Liberal incumbent)
Western Arctic – Dennis Bevington (NDP) over Liberal incumbent and Northern Development minister Ethel Blondin-Andrew.
Nunavut – Nancy Karetak-Lindell (Liberal incumbent)

Regional breakdown:

Liberal – 2
NDP – 1

National breakdown:

Bloc Québécois – 58
Conservative – 113
Liberal – 97
NDP – 40

[skvorisdeadsorta]

Woud it be in poor taste to start singing South Park songs right now?

[Rit]

although a few predictions came in wrong, Drum, that was some supremely awesome effort you put in.

[rockkid]

All I have to say is YES!!!
Now if only a new day does dawn & we get rid of the theft of tax dollars, the ruination of the military & the rest of the Libs dirty legacy.

[riley]

Yeah the Conservative party is probably well above having any back room shenanigans happen on their watch.

Putting in a party that flies in the face of everything progressive this country has achieved or stands for as some sort of punishment against another party is the equivalent to shitting in your own pants as some stretch attempt to teach your infant to stop shitting in his or hers. It seems like your taking an empathetic high road to impart wisdom, but who really wins by having to sit in their own shit for up to 4 years?

Personally I don't like sitting in my own shit and I'm somewhat disappointed in my fellow country persons for taking such a near sighted approach to addressing the issues of the outgoing administration. Corruption can happen in any company or government. It happens. You fix it.

I have no party affiliation or loyalty at this point, but knowingly electing the equivalent to a hate mongering intolerant party whose mandate is to consciously create inequalities in a country rooted in equality is a ridiculous form of protest.

However, the people have spoken and that also makes this country great. Thank fuck those assholes don't have a majority.

Does Alberta have any plans to seperate? I would vote in favour of that.

[Rit]

yikes. bold words, Riley. i stand by it 100% though. you were right.

[Rit]

the Conservaties are not leading. They're merely reflecting the usual free market "inevitabilities" that stupid neo-cons everywhere adhere to. It's a failure of leadership, in fact.

[rockkid]

Oh ye fear mongerer..........




My liberal friends don't understand why a nice, progressive, Jewish girl like me isn't filled with fear and loathing because our new prime minister is an evangelical Christian.
In their eyes, the barbarians are now at the gates.
My friends are convinced a Canadian-style Taliban is poised to tear apart the nation's social fabric, destroy our welfare system and bring back chain gangs.
If you believe these Chicken Littles, Stephen Harper and his cabal will ban abortion - as well as coat hangers - and plant minders in the home of every pregnant woman to make sure she gives birth.
Single pregnant women will be whisked off to re-education camps and forced to marry geeky Tory policy wonks who never learned how to flirt.
And at the re-education camp next door, gays and lesbians will be shown heterosexual porn flicks - missionary position only, of course - to cure them of their evil ways.
Rich Canadians, whose expanding girths have destroyed their aging joints, will limp to the front of the line with their credit cards to pay for new knee and hip replacements.
It's not as if the poor won't have options. They can always sell a kidney to pay for surgery. That's what personal responsibility is all about, isn't it? Don't you just love our entrepreneurial spirit?
OK, folks, take a deep breath.
A Tory win doesn't mean the world is coming to an end, even though Paul Martin did his best to scare us out of our wits.
According to Martin, only Liberal tenets reflect Canadian values and only Liberal supremacy is good for Canada.
The Liberal leader's scaremongering reached such absurd levels that even NDP Leader Jack Layton - no stranger to exaggeration himself - came out with one of the best lines of the campaign.
Martin "has nothing left to say to Canadians other than to tell them that unless they vote Liberal, the sun will not rise, spring will not come and volcanoes will destroy the earth," Layton quipped.
But the more Martin tried to make Harper out to look scary, the less frightening the Tory leader looked to the electorate. No, the Tories have no interest in reviving the abortion debate, Harper calmly explained.
Could a Tory backbencher bring forward an anti-abortion private member's bill? Yes, but so could a Liberal MP. Such a bill would be buried in a millisecond. The Tories know there is no public appetite for another abortion wrangle.
In addition, Harper declared, the party would not use the notwithstanding clause on the same-sex marriage issue. Nothing scary there.
Another reality check: Harper has no intention of gutting medicare. He wants to develop wait-time guarantees. What the heck's wrong with that? People are dying on waiting lists.
Harper also supports the notion of private facilities delivering publicly paid health care. Critics can bleat all they want but this does not violate the Canada Health Act.
Even Layton, supposedly a staunch defender of a public-only system, admitted he had a hernia operation in a private Toronto-area clinic (paid for by medicare) in the 1990s.
Yet when Harper suggests public-private partnerships could make medicare more efficient, the alarmists paint a picture of the Tories leaving the poor to fend for themselves.
Honestly, I don't know what all the fuss is about. Harper is, above all, a fiscal conservative who believes in less government waste and more accountability. The idea of a straight-arrow economist plunging us into a deficit is nuts.
And I believe Harper is smart enough to keep religion out of politics. The fundamentalist fringe will be disappointed but so what?
Harper's opponents see something spooky behind those steely blue eyes but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.


With kudos to Mindelle Jacobs


Get off the woe is me pot

[rockkid]

I also never said only Liberals can be corrupt riley give me some fucking credit will you.
I said lets hope it finally changes hence

Now if only a new day does dawn.

By the way

no party affiliation

did you actually vote, just curious.

[Dr. Drum]

Thanks, Rit. 100% on the predictions in Newfoundland, against the better judgment of my mother-in-law, BTW, a lifelong Liberal who actually lives in Avalon – HA! About 90% in Nova Scotia and progressively a little worse as we headed west. Still I wasn’t doing too badly by the time we hit BC.

Never believed Harper would get more than 2 or 3 seats in Quebec.

Re: The "theft of tax dollars", I wouldn’t get your hopes up, RK. The Cons are rolling back the 1% decrease the Liberals made in the lowest bracket on January 1 and if I’m not mistaken, the follow-up on the two middle brackets is now gone as well. 1% on the GST is not going to make those up.

Plus, if they’re really serious about correcting the fiscal imbalance with the provinces, they’re going to need to come up with a lot of cash from somewhere. Program cuts will be the first thing they’ll look at, of course, but they’re not going to get a lot of those through a minority House and my guess is, after the job the Liberals did in the 90s, they’re not going to find a whole lot of places where they really can cut anyway.

Riley, there is another way to look at this and that’s as a regional power adjustment. The Cons don’t get votes just on the basis of social conservatism. They’re absolutely dominant west of the Ontario-Manitoba border, until you get to BC. Part of this is really is just western Canada asserting an increase of power and influence commensurate with its relative increase in national population and wealth. To the degree that that’s what’s taking place, not all bad.

Plus on the social conservative front, all they have is a weak minority. Not sure they’ll even attempt another vote on SSM. What would be the point? They’ll probably lose worse than the last time. Also glad to see a relatively strong Conservative Quebec caucus. Probably going to make for some water in the wine on these issues.