2006 Mid-Term Elections

[Kensterberg]

ded said:

kenholzman said:

How do you run on "return to values" when that's what Bush ran on and you'll have (hopefully) two years worth of serious investigations into the myriad GOP scandals?

The American public may have a short memory, but it's not THAT short!

That's where the facade of cleaning house comes in. Set up a few very visable sacrficial lambs and apologise..."These are not the values the Replucians party was founded on, these are not American values..." in 2000 the values in question were those of Bill Clinton and now that values are that of their own party, it would be serious mistake to think these scandals will keep the GOP down for long. Remember how many people seriously blame Clinton for 9/11 and think Bush is really giving them terrorists what for. Nobody runs on a return to values like the Republicans.

But that solid Republican base is only about 30-35 percent of the entire electorate. In the last two elections, the GOP got ALL of those voters to turn out, and barely won each time. This fall will be a big measure of how solid that support is. If (as looks likely) the Dems pick up the House and/or Senate, that shows that the GOP can't count on it's base to ALWAYS be there en masse. Today's GOP is a bigger mess, and full of more question marks, than the party was in 1990, and that party lost only two years later in a divided election.

I think it's likely that there will be a real "return to values" candidate running in 2008, to the right of the GOP. The religious right is having real issues with their GOP masters at this point -- they feel like they've been the soldiers getting these guys elected, but they're not getting the policy they want. That's going to be exacerbated in 2008. We could have another divided electorate like in '92, where a central-left candidate getting above forty percent of the vote could well win the whole thing.

[Mary]

Wow - I'm surprised and impressed to see that the past 6 years in this country haven't completely destroyed Ken's optimistic appraisal about the American people.

I think it's possible for the Dems to tak the House this time around (I don't see the Senate happening - by the way, speaking of the Senate, Harold Ford Jr. is not going to win in TN barring a sudden and unexpected turnabout - Corker is comfortably ahead now - the media is just keeping this race alive as a "closely contested" one because it makes good copy - Ford is young and handsome and would be the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction if he were elected, so the media blitz won't die, but he's not going to win) But even the House, I think is very much up in the air. The real tragedy that these elections are highlighting is the tragedy of gerrymandering - in national polls simply asking people whether they want to see Dems or Repubs in charge of Congress, the Dems win by outrageous margins - 20 points, usually - yet it's still an open question whether they can even take the House. I know that national preferences shouldn't necessarily mirror the composition of the House, otherwise we'd just have one giant Senate elected nationally by proportional representation rather than district representatives - but I can't help but think something is amiss when national preferences seem so completely out of whack with likely election results.

And going back to another random remark of Ken's, while I took great exception to the people who voted Nader in 2004, I'm not quite so harsh on the ones who voted for him in 2000. First, no one could possibly have foreseen 9/11 -- and so many of the tragedies (albeit certainly not all of them) facing our country today emerged from the Bush Administration's woeful response to 9/11. Second, in 2000 it seemed possible that Nader might get 5% of the vote nationwide, which would qualify the Green Party for federal matching funds, which is a reasonable and pragmatic goal for a third party to pursue - thus if Nader got 5%, it's not entirely clear the votes for him would have been "wasted" in the way that third party voters are usually castigated about.

In 2004, however, there was really no excuse. I can excuse a few of the nutty anarchists I know, for whom the only answer to international problems at this point is a full-blown revolution and so they wouldn't vote at all, not for Nader and not for anyone (but then, I have other issues to take up with them, needless to say) but absolutely anybody else who voted for Nader really wasn't thinking straight. However, that said, Nader wasn't a spoiler in 2004 - he didn't get enough votes. The Democrats have only themseles to blame for that tragedy.

M

[rockysigman]

People look back fondly on Bill Clinton's job performance, but I think a lot of people still don't think highly of him as a person, so a race about values wouldn't swing Hillary's way based on Bill. And I don't know that Bill's policy successes can easily be transferred over to Hillary. Bill can be out there stumping for her, but I really don't see him trying to convince people that she played a significant policy role in his administration.

[Paul]

The real tragedy that these elections are highlighting is the tragedy of gerrymandering

Excellent point Mary! I think the GOP will win for the above reason, plus I don't trust the voting machines....with no paper trail, and Windows running the voting booths, hackers can easily manipulate the outcome. I have a bad feeling republifucks will maintain control of both the House and Senate.

[phil]

Watch Michael J. Fox makes a campaign ad on stem cell research
for a democrat candidate running for the US senate ...

claireonline.com/multimedia/ads/MichaelJFox.jsp

This is what Rush Limbaugh had to say about that video ...

In response to an ad Michael J. Fox filmed in support of stem cell research and candidate Claire McCaskill, Limbaugh stated on his show yesterday that he believes Fox stopped using his medication before filming to show extreme symptoms in the video. Limbaugh even suggested that Fox was faking his symptoms altogether.

[Paul]

Rush is a dickless fuck

[strat-0]

Ditto.

[kmc]

If republicans keep control of the House, even with all this shit, I might completely dissociate myself from American politics.

[kmc]

I mean shit, I already have to live with the fact that a known confirmed racist is my Senator.

[rockysigman]

Yes, but you still don't know which confirmed racist will be your Senator come January.

That was probably no reassuring. Sorry.

There's a lot of shit being talked in the governor's race here. For the most part, both candidates are accusing each other of being corrupt. But the incumbant managed to push through a bill this year that gives health care to 100% of Illinois' children. That is awesome--I don't care how many of his associates are going to prison.

[kmc]

I should add that I am completely negative on Democratic prospects in the midterm, and am not convinced that the current Democratic leadership would bring anything positive to the table in 2006 beyond subpoena of Bush...in of itself a tremendous positive, but nothing much as far as policy goes.

[Thorngrub]

From Stephen King:
If I know anything, I know scary. And giving this president and this out-of-control Congress two more years to screw up our future is downright terrifying. Thankfully, this national nightmare is one we can end with—literally—a wake up call.
My friends at MoveOn.org Political Action are organizing a big round of national phone parties this weekend before Halloween, Oct. 28th & 29th. We'll be calling progressive folks in key districts who may not turn out unless they get a friendly reminder or two.

And since it's almost Halloween, we'll celebrate with an optional costume contest, some pumpkin carving (I'll be making a Jack-Abramoff-O'-Lantern) and—of course—plenty of candy.

Please click the link below to R.S.V.P. for the nearest party, or to sign up to host your own:

pol.moveon.org/event/events/index.html?action_id=61&id=9233-6226418-DSmHi.6TWuydNE6hFv1V5A&t=5

If you're concerned about the future of this country, this is the time to get involved. The polls are telling us that this November is our best shot in over a decade to turn things around, and we've got to make the most of it.

You might wonder if these reminder calls to voters actually help. I did, too. It turns out MoveOn tested this whole Call for Change program on some early elections this year, and it produced the biggest increase in actual votes of any volunteer phone bank ever studied.

The failure in Iraq and the recent string of scandals have put a bunch of new districts into play. That means there are more voters to call than anyone planned, and every call we make at a party this weekend will reach a key voter who otherwise would have been missed.

Come November 8th, we're all going to kick ourselves if we ignored any close races and then lost the majority in Congress by a hair. These parties are our chance to make sure that doesn't happen.

Can you help end our national nightmare this Halloween weekend? Sign up to attend or host a local Call for Change Halloween party this weekend:

pol.moveon.org/event/events/index.html?action_id=61&id=9233-6226418-DSmHi.6TWuydNE6hFv1V5A&t=6

Thanks,

–Stephen King
Monday, October 23rd, 2006

[Thorngrub]

If you're concerned about the future of this country, this is the time to get involved. The polls are telling us that this November is our best shot in over a decade to turn things around, and we've got to make the most of it.

You might wonder if these reminder calls to voters actually help. I did, too. It turns out MoveOn tested this whole Call for Change program on some early elections this year, and it produced the biggest increase in actual votes of any volunteer phone bank ever studied.

The failure in Iraq and the recent string of scandals have put a bunch of new districts into play. That means there are more voters to call than anyone planned, and every call we make at a party this weekend will reach a key voter who otherwise would have been missed.

Come November 8th, we're all going to kick ourselves if we ignored any close races and then lost the majority in Congress by a hair. These parties are our chance to make sure that doesn't happen.

Can you help end our national nightmare this Halloween weekend? Sign up to attend or host a local Call for Change Halloween party this weekend:

pol.moveon.org/event/events/index.html?action_id=61&id=9233-6226418-DSmHi.6TWuydNE6hFv1V5A&t=6

[kmc]

We're fucked.

[skvorisdeadsorta]

Rocky, Clinton's successfull policy?

Seriously, why don't you just go join the young republicans with that bullshit.