Canadian Politics: The Harper Era

[tuneschick]

Can't comment much on your predictions, unfortunately, Drum - but can I just say that as always, your political knowledge astounds me? To have this sort of handle on every seat in the province... wow. Highly impressive.

Hope your predictions are on the mark.

[Dr. Drum]

Thanks, tunes. We’ll see how much of a handle I have on it, though. This election is neck and neck. There’s a good dozen seats (at least) that are two or even three way toss-ups.

And I’ll admit, I’m being a total optimist for the NDP. At the beginning of this campaign I really didn’t think much of anything was going to change this time. That’s still a possible outcome but the Liberals do appear to be faltering seriously and that opens up opportunities for both the other major parties. (The fourth party, the provincial Greens could be a serious force here some day, but they’re not quite ready for prime time, I’m afraid.)

For the NDP 26 seats would pretty much be a best case scenario. Winning government, though? Suddenly very much within reach.

[tuneschick]

Sounds like it should be an interesting one, Drum.

It's funny, because our next provincial election is happening in fall '07 - but being in the bureaucracy of it all, I can really see the political shuffling for position already very much underway. Pretty interesting, really.

Not sure where we'll be at for next election. We have a new Tory leader (John Tory, so appropos) since Ernie Eves retired after the previous election. Not really sure what the consensus is on him yet, as far as the general public goes.

And I'm not hoping for the Tories to win it - but I have to say, at this point it'd at least make life a lot easier for me in dealing with the federal government. That's purely selfish... but provincial Libs dealing with federal Tories has been a nightmare at best. The internal processes the Tories have implemented are bizarre and ludicrous, and I'm unfortunately having to deal with them firsthand at the moment.

[Dr. Drum]

Yeah, Stephen's going to have to get over trying to run the whole federal government out of the PMO. Long term it just can't work. He's such a control freak, though, he just may try.

[riley]

Doc - I'll be voting for Percy Paris (kitten killing Tories not withstanding ). First provincial election in our new riding. What can you tell me about this guy?

[stingingpistol]

what's the history of the ndp provincially in nova scotia, dr.drum? if i recall correctly they seem to do well federally from time to time. aren't there a few federal ndp mp's currently? i think alexa mcdonough is from nova scotia if memory serves me right.

[Dr. Drum]

Don't know why but for some reason I had assumed you were in that bottom-feeder Barnet's riding, Riley.

Re: Percy Paris, I've actually never met the man. From what I've heard about him, though, he seems to be a very personable, well-liked guy. Seems to have a pretty diverse range of interests and professional accomplishments from his bio on the NDP site.

stingingpistol – Alexa's still federal MP for the riding of Halifax. She was NDP leader between 1995 and 2003. We won 6 out of 11 federal seats in Nova Scotia under her in the 1997 election, which is the NDP's historic high federally in this province. The Liberals have been picking them off one by one since and we're down to two seats at this point, although we came a respectable second in two others in January.

Historic high for the provincial NDP was in the 1998 election when we tied the then governing Liberals with 19 seats. Under British parliamentary convention, since the Liberals didn't lose the election (they tied) they were given the first opportunity to form a government and seek the confidence of the House and the NDP became Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

[stingingpistol]

i remember 1997 cos i watched alexa's victory speech on tv. nova scotia must've been responsible for the majority of the ndp seats in that particular parliment cos i don't think they had more than 12-14 seats in total.

it's interesting to me that the ndp is capable of doing so well in nova scotia and yet they haven't managed to break into the rest of the maritimes in any meaningful way. maybe the provinces are more disparate than i think, but i thot they'd have similar concerns re: what they want from the federal gov't.

it's exciting to hear the ndp might potentially do so well in the upcoming provincial election. hopefully they do a good job if the electorate shows confidence in them. it'd be especially nice to see any gains at the provincial level translate into seats in the next federal election whenever that might be.

[Dr. Drum]

stingingpistol said:

it's interesting to me that the ndp is capable of doing so well in nova scotia and yet they haven't managed to break into the rest of the maritimes in any meaningful way. maybe the provinces are more disparate than i think, but i thot they'd have similar concerns re: what they want from the federal gov't.

Well, as a Newfoundlander I would say that each of 4 Atlantic Provinces (the 3 Maritime provinces + Newfoundland) does have its own unique culture. Further, there are distinct cultures/regions within each province – Cape Breton, Labrador, Acadie; etc. So that's part of it and so is the fact that the Conservative/Liberal dichotomy is so deeply ingrained in the political culture of this region. However, you also have to remember that although left politics has a long history on Canada's east coast (the Newfoundland Fisherman's Protective Union, the trade union movement in the coal mines of Nova Scotia, the Cape Breton Labour Party, the Fredericton Socialist League, etc.), in its current incarnation, as the NDP, it's comparatively young. You're basically talking a 40-45 year history.

Takes a lot of work and skill-building at the grass-roots level to organize it to the point where you're a constant presence in Parliament and the provincial legislatures. Remember, prior to the 1980s, that kind of representation at both the federal and provincial level in Nova Scotia was really nothing more than sporadic. 1997 was the first time we'd come anywhere near taking half the federal seats in this province. The '98 election was the first time we'd taken more than 4 seats in the provincial legislature. There's a base level of support here now – regardless of seat total we're taking in the range of a minimum 30% share of the popular vote each election. The challenge for the party in the other three provinces is basically to put the structures in place that allow them to build and solidify their support in the same way.

[stingingpistol]

thanks for the insight, drdrum! i reckon ur dead-on. it takes a long time to build a party from the ground up, and the ndp really hasn't been around that long. hell my mom grew up on tommy douglas speeches so it hasn't been that long at all.

the poll results must be starting to roll in soon.....

[riley]

NDP look to have picked up 5 seats, but we're still into a Torey minority. Our NDP candidate in our riding picked up a seat fromthe Torey incumbent, so that's pretty cool.

The nDP owns Halifax proper/metro with 50% of the popular, and I think there were only like 2-3 seats they missed if that.

Of course I'll leave the good Doctor to fill in the blanks as the resident NDP guru, but I have to think the party views this fairly positively. If they can keep the course, keep Dexter as leader, and keep the Torie minority in check again, I would say they're super close to pulling off a win next time around.

All that said, I'm so fucking tired on the Tories. The province is ripe for change. Hali's leading the way, yet people just want change their thinking enough to allow a different approach. Slow and steady I guess, but jesus.

The Liberals are fucked.

[Dr. Drum]

So, so close. Haven't had a chance to really scan the numbers yet, but if we'd had a combined 586 votes more** in the NDP column in what I believe were the two ridings we lost to the Tories by the closest margin – Eastern Shore and Guysborough-Sheet Harbour – we'd be talking about the new NDP minority government this morning.

So yes indeed, the mood at the NDP bash last night was rather upbeat. ;D Darrell Dexter is going to be premier of this province – I'm convinced it's just a matter of time.

I'd give it 18 months to 2 years before we're back at this again.

The nDP owns Halifax proper/metro with 50% of the popular, and I think there were only like 2-3 seats they missed if that.

Jesus, don't we just! Maureen won her seat again with almost 61% of the vote in a four-way race! And even at that there were a few that topped her – Kevin Deveaux got 64% in Cole Harbour.

Good to see Halifax-Citadel back in the NDP column. Too bad about Linda Power in Clayton Park. We'd have had that one if someone had though to lock Joan Jessome away in a closet somewhere for a month or so the day the writ dropped.

Riley, nice to see Percy Paris taking it over your way! Some had feared that suburban HRM might go the way of the 905 belt in Ontario but not by the looks of it with results like those!

Good as well to see us starting to break through in rural Nova Scotia. Pictou, Shelburne.... Queens county – Tory for 50+ years straight but not any more!!

Jesus, I'm tired...

_{**Half that, of course, if they'd come directly from the Tory column.}

[riley]

I think Epstein kicked the shit out his next closest opponent as well. Throw in Estabrooks and of course Dexter, and it's like those seats are their's until they decide not to run.

Pleased that Paris took that seat. The moral in all of this from a Fall River perspective of course, is not to run over kittens with your ATV.

[tuneschick]

docdrum said:

Some had feared that suburban HRM might go the way of the 905 belt in Ontario but not by the looks of it with results like those!

Ugh, don't remind me.

Glad to hear the good news, boys. Though you really need to tell me what's up with the kitten thing.

[Dr. Drum]

Riley – yeah Howard kicked ass. Man, they hate him so bad. Surprisingly, it was the Tory who came second, rather than the rather well-regarded Liberal.

tunes – the former Conservative incumbent in Riley's riding ran over his poor cat with an ATV. Fucking yahoo. More info here:

thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/509446.html